Not less than the intrinsic value of higher value

 Not less than the intrinsic value of higher value products
the well-designed, well-planned marketing, publicity work is solid, Changsheng Celebration separable distribution equity fund transactions are successful, it only took one day will write down nearly more than a year the most successful distribution case. Changsheng Celebration of the establishment of the scale of 14.687 billion copies, in accordance with the prior agreement of the classification method 6 for 4, Changsheng Celebration has 5.875 billion copies of A, B are 8.812 billion Changsheng Celebration .5 were 26, these two types of fund shares will be traded.
Changsheng celebrating the release at the same time using the inside and outside the channels of channels, the former showed a high efficiency, most subscribed channels of capital is taking the floor. off the subscription channels are few, in addition to their low efficiency of natural outside, some banks do not understand the fund industry innovation network situation, a narrow conservative would mistakenly think the loss of client resources, do not actively promote the fund, is also an important reason.
fund established, Changsheng Fund Management Company timely issue of fund shares transferred to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, do the preparatory work before listing. On the custody transfer operations, some excellent and thoughtful service to provide full and timely bank branches will be the unified organization of business clients for the custody transfer and eliminates the associated costs, some bank outlets regardless of the matter.
Changsheng Celebration according to the listing announcement, as of May 19, Changsheng Celebration A, Changsheng Celebration B shares can be traded on the scale of 5.285 billion copies, respectively, and 7.931 billion copies, respectively, were 589 million and 8.81 million copies have not yet managed to turn the venue. These funds belong to individual investors, trading rules for the market is not very familiar with. in accordance with the processing speed of bank outlets is now expected to be listed, Investors will also be gradually transferred to the inside part.
network regardless of the bank's attitude to the Fund, the attitude of the custody transfer, in theory, in order to achieve arbitrage, all investors will be Subscription to the custody transfer of fund shares to the venue, and then wait for an opportunity to sell. has learned from the current situation, but time has a different problem, many investors are actively trying to handle the business. Therefore, to the back analytical convenience, this article finds all of the outside investors in the market in time before the time to subscribe to the sidelines Changsheng Celebration fund shares transferred to the floor.
the original, we do not anticipate investors Changsheng Celebration would be so recognized, are actively marketing the fund, secretly for the expected 60 million copies in the goal, and do a full, active, good idea, if the issue size could reach 60 million copies, to stop the issue. Therefore, I first wrote the fund The four trading strategies envisaged must be adjusted accordingly.
a speculative article: to re-examine a secondary market for arbitrage between the first
Pricing fixed rate of return method, is expected to Changsheng Celebration A listing of the premium rate of about 5%. analogy expected, Changsheng Celebration B in time can be traded 15% of the premium performance.
(a) market the new changes in the background distribution
Changsheng Celebration scale 14.687 billion copies, far more than expected to more than double the size of the influx of funds, the funds are mainly large clients. This that the fund can be significantly less than normal number of households for the subscription card. This year, 13 have already established proactive investment style equity funds, the average size of 9.79 million copies of the subscription. Changsheng Celebration of the average household subscription size 575,400 copies, more than five times the market average. These funds come from large customers in many areas, such as for beating the arbitrage shares funds, insurance funds, financial products, funds, other financial investment institutions , private equity funds, and so on.
According to projections, the subscription funds Changsheng Celebration of 86% or more from large customers, including the strength of the institutions and individuals. these large customers have significant funds part belongs to the pursuit of low risk, even risk-free arbitrage funds. in the fund before the release, I was once an internal proposal to the Galaxy Securities Changsheng celebrating the release of new shares as a rehearsal before the IPO is about to restart, mobilization ago for beating back the subscription of new shares to arbitrage funds. Such funds are affecting our biggest obstacle to the established trading strategy.
Secondly, there are many insurance funds, or institutional funds of a similar nature, low-risk nature of a strong, strong pursuit of the stability of income, expected rate of return do not ask, investment discipline, will force us to look at what was previously considered a moderate change in the trading strategy.
a small portion of the large customer funds, they might be identified Changsheng A Celebration the value of fixed income, or identified may be higher Changsheng Celebration B premium to the future, many people have a more specific investment objectives, the market outlook is more optimistic, under normal circumstances, do not achieve the desired goal is a return will basically continue holds.
(b) the valuation of the new space
Changsheng A Celebration with the nature of fixed-income products, the original pricing strategy given essentially the same, that is listed after the premium rate of around 5%. According to estimates, there may be 2.5 billion yuan of special funds to fight new shares carry no long-term holders of Celebration A's wishes. However, the expected return Changsheng Celebration A very clear, little risk, these funds are selling A Celebration Changsheng out when the irrational behavior of the possibility of selling is not great. There is also a very important message: Some institutional investors, optimistic Changsheng Celebration A, if such share of space appropriate rate of return they would consider buying and holding, and in principle is willing to held to maturity, these funds should be offset by arbitrage funds Changsheng sell A Celebration impact.
biggest change in pricing strategy is the same Changsheng B. The earliest celebration . First of all, is mainly derived from the post-IPO capital arbitrage funds hit their target rate of return of 2% from top to bottom, to have 3% or 4% return, they will be very satisfied. Now, suppose when Changsheng Celebration A premium rate of 5% of the time, the price they sell Changsheng Celebration 1.00 B, to gain access to minimum standards. Second, some insurance with the insurance funds and the nature of the funds, expected rate of return than the special subscription slightly higher shares of funds, but higher than most of the more limited extent, for example, is also under these conditions, Changsheng Celebration B again if the trading price of a few percentage points higher than that in the vast part of the funds Most will be out with satisfaction.
Changsheng Celebration B is the size of 8.812 billion copies, a large amount of customers holding about 7.6 billion or so. One half of the new shares is designed to play the arbitrage funds, the total size about 40 billion copies, then there has about 30 million copies of the insurance nature of the funds. As a result, listed in the beginning of Changsheng Celebration B, there may be 60-70 million copies of the funding will meet the expected rate of return After the profit-taking. This is consistent with the operation characteristics of arbitrage funds.
from the current market situation, the early being difficult to achieve, but, in the digestion of these low-risk funds, the chips have been fully in circulation after the handoff, handoff into the market in the new lower cost of capital Chichou cases, the secondary market price should be will have a good performance. Therefore, the cost of capital is not high, less demanding of capital mobility, may wish to hold patience.
(c) the future stock market conditions listed
Changsheng Celebration, the stock market will the trend of the situation will be affected to some extent, the market share of the fund pricing categories, especially Changsheng B. For the stock market situation Celebration, we have the three hypotheses:
First, if stock market conditions In the up, everything said.
Second, if the stock market prices go flat, everything worth seeing is not necessarily a bad situation.
Third, if the stock market conditions in the fall, according to the usual inertia of thinking, may be bring some negative effects. However, I believe that, if the stock market prices fell, it would be a good opportunity Jiancang the fund, the fund will be able to collect relatively more low-cost chips. Therefore, the stock market prices fell, the only funds, should be viewed as positive.
Second, the investment chapter: our future will not be a dream
photo: Equity Funds of various maturities, the average rate of return under the circumstances
Source: China Galaxy Securities Institute
data cutoff date: April 17, 2009
Drawing: Wang Qun Air
(a) the risk of the first alert is very detailed
an investment, we gain a common attitude is concerned, for risk disclosure, often overlooked. in the early value, the valuation is only as a reference. Although the situation on the current market valuation can be the success probability is high, but still not be ruled out in some unforeseen circumstances, the risk of a variety of unforeseen occurrence , which is likely to cause failure of the forecast. However, even if there is a risk there, I do not think it necessarily should be too worried. prevail, all equity funds over the past year l r, l in the past three years, r, l r, since the founding of the average net loss rate and net growth rates were -10.84%, 146.42% and 83.75%. That is to say, from a relatively long-term investment perspective, even after the great bear market of 2008 and the 2006 bear market before that round, the long-term equity fund yields still remain positive. This situation indicates that the current relatively low background of the case based on the market three years later, in Changsheng Fund Management company specializing in investment operations, driven by positive returns for the fund should be a high probability. point of view, even if short-term arbitrage encountered an unexpected risk that may not achieve the expected benefits, but the relatively long-term investment point of view, equity funds may still have some investment value. This is both Changsheng Celebration As a short-term speculative product, or as a long-term investment products are more appropriate for the specific meaning. can be fully realized in the short term the probability is very small. But at the same time, given the country's macroeconomic situation, the stock market situation, wait a year or wait three years to achieve the expected return is also a very small probability.
to manage Changsheng Celebration, Changsheng Fund with the two fund managers: Wang Ning, Huang Ruiqing. Wang Ning in China, Societe Generale had two fund companies, 2005 joined Troutman Sanders in August, now the company's deputy director of investment management, since January 3, 2008 Changsheng growth value has served as a fund manager. Mr. Huang Ruiqing in facilities, the Great Wall had two fund companies, since September 2005, joined Troutman Sanders, who during the Great Wall Fund Management Company, has served as the company's financial engineering team leader, he is now Changsheng China Securities 100 Index fund of fund managers.
two funds Jing Li have their own characteristics, Ning is doing proactive management of people, Huang Ruiqing do passive management of the. The former will, to a certain extent, the investment through active, try to make the fund's performance based on average earnings in the market the icing on the cake, while the average income of the fund source is probably Huang Ruiqing expertise: quantitative investment management. Changsheng Celebration as the scale of future needs in the asset allocation index of a certain percentage of investment support. According to the author research situation, this work will be primarily responsible for Mr. Huang Ruiqing, the index of investment in the Fund's investment will account for a large proportion of the operation.
(c) The performance of index funds a good investment
indexed index fund is a major investment. index funds in the market ups and downs on the net has a good performance. See Figure II, on behalf of the index fund group that column, each column represents a year, whether it is upward column, or down the columns, more than three years to index funds are the longest. These findings indicate that: two consecutive years in 2006,2007 great bull market, index funds, the average net value of the highest growth rate; in major adjustment in prices in 2008, the index fund's average net loss of .2009 biggest since, as of May 8, the average index fund is the highest net growth rate.
In addition, photos Second, index funds that group no matter when that column is the longest a group, stock funds, said that group is the second long column of a group. Changsheng Celebration future course of the operation in the investment , will contain the index of the investment strategy and active type of stock market investment strategy, therefore, from two perspectives, Changsheng Celebration of future performance, investors should not be disappointed. If you do the most conservative estimated to hold the fund in case of a situation a long time, and its future performance expectations are still more than a good layer of security.
Figure II: Some stock market fund investing mainly in the average Performance status
Source: China Galaxy Securities Research Institute
Data interval: 1 January 2006 to May 8, 2009
Statistics tab: Wang Qun Air
photos of the above three statistics Change density of various types of funds, that in 2006 and 2007, during the bull market in those two years, the annual net increase of more than 100% of the funds accounted for the ratio of the number of similar funds, and the 2008 bear market decline in over 50% of net funds account the ratio of the number of similar funds. Obviously, index funds score is 3 The net loss rate of all funds in excess of 50%. index funds that the pace of the net value of the performance characteristics of highly consistent, indicating a specific fund ups and downs between the magnitude of the net difference between the small, select any one index fund investing can obtain a similar level with the market average return.
summary, first of all, Changsheng Celebration and operation characteristics of the basic situation, determine the future performance of the Fund should not be behind the market; Second, relatively long-term investment perspective, investors in the fund will eventually make their due income, net worth rose as the secondary market price of the deal is bound to rise. Third, we have experienced a financial crisis, economic crisis, the China's macro-economic bottom line has been recognized by the market, then the stock market as a barometer of macroeconomic and should not be empty for no longer look to make a negative reflection of the macroeconomic.
Figure III: the stock market Change fund investing mainly in the density statistics
Source: China Galaxy Securities Research Institute
data range: 2006-2008
Statistics tab: Wang Qun Air
Three, tactic: the new situation has many meanings
previous basis - the net value of the Fund, before the listing of the fund, is not expected to change much. According to written notice of the Fund's boss, before the listing ended Changsheng Celebration May 19, the Fund's equity investment 1.36 billion, accounting for the proportion of the gross assets of the Fund was 0.92%. Changsheng Celebration A reference to the net share of 1.001 yuan, Changsheng Celebration reference B 0.999 yuan net.
Now, thanks to the size of the fund The surge, as investors change the structure of short-term arbitrage is not impossible, but the first is expected to reach the kind of earnings, a lot more difficult, and the short term may be more difficult to achieve. this time from the fund healthy secondary market transactions sustainable development perspective, are constantly changing market, investment strategies and tactics are also operating in at any time, with the city, with the situation and change. is cast A buy B, buy or throw B A, or A, B the whole cast, or A, B all stay, different investors transaction is expected to vary widely. However, according to the author's research, these funds have a common feature: the short term will not lose money to sell, unless a significant negative market.
on Here, we have a basic operation of maintaining the status quo strategy: (1) No matter what kind of investors when the market did not meet their revenue goals and expectations, consider the implementation of appropriate long-term investment strategy. (2) For high risk tolerance of investors, short-term funding if needed, can be thrown Changsheng A Celebration as the first choice to meet liquidity needs. (3) low-risk category for those funds, in achieving the expected is the target rate of return, you can consider harmony out, smooth departure.
(b) of the new investor's strategy should
from the current market situation, the future of new investors are four main categories: the first a class, for various reasons, there is no time to subscribe to the issue of the day celebrating the people Changsheng; the second category, issued the same day to subscribe, but then people who deliberately do not subscribe; the third category, after the development so far, by many the impact of information, recognizing the value of the fund investors who; fourth, specialized market of people waiting for the secondary market. For the four category of investors, we analyzed one by one.
First, despite the author in the first trading Strategy report, recommended investors to subscribe for the day of release Changsheng Celebration, but there are still many investors do not see my report, or indeed read my report, but did not see the end of my report in Canadian written in bold, and suggest that you subscribe in the issue of the day to prompt the fund. In short, the issue of the day there is no time for investors to subscribe to the Fund, there are many, a large part of these people, will be listed after the close of the Fund pay attention to it.
second, according to incomplete statistics, Changsheng Celebration issue, because of the subscription funds gathered, there are a lot of money quit not come in, the total amount of these funds than the existing size of the fund. These funds do not come in one important reason is that arbitrage funds worry too much, the listing of the heavy selling pressure, may cause the failure of arbitrage originally anticipated, and there may be a loss to the original investors. These funds The vast majority are arbitrage funds, does not come right; small part of a non-arbitrage funds, may enter the market in the future as well.
third issue of great success Changsheng Celebration, was a time the media rushing to report on the hot, attracting the concern of many investors, many investors learned at this time there is such a wonderful story. with the same investment in the stock market, there is no subscription to the find opportunities on the market level, the most opportunities, greater opportunities, mainly in the secondary market. And in theory, logically, if no profit on the secondary market opportunities are not any new product in a issued out of the market level.
Fourth, specifically to wait for people to enter the market in the secondary market, with different investment and speculative purposes, of which both the people who are interested in Changsheng A Celebration, but also with the preference Changsheng Qing-B person. No matter who is at the right time to enter the secondary market. These people have a common wish: I hope they love to get parity certain types of investments. on the current situation, they dream to do so is unlikely to recover moderately high, may be necessary. According to research, whether it is Changsheng Celebration A, or Changsheng Celebration B, are likely to become the strength of the organization's important strategic asset allocation components.
for the above four categories of investors, after the market before the 10 days of serious reflection, must be their own trading strategies, most of these strategies the same point is: as long as the basis for the market as usual, able to accept a modest premium (relative to the issue price), but not too much to chase the high, unless significant changes in market fundamentals. If then this is the case, it is lucky the market because the market is not crazy.
(c) From the perspective of market capitalization problem
Currently, there are many investors are worried that the future market Changsheng Celebration B was 8.812 billion after the float caps were, whether the scale is too big? here, I think we should to correct the idea that talking about the time scale, and sometimes should be concerned about the size of market capitalization, rather than the size of the share. If the market capitalization of view, Changsheng Celebration B's market capitalization should be listed at the beginning 9.0 billion yuan. this size is not large, but this is more suitable for large-scale capital, financing the operation of the main potential.
the stock market as an example, look at the current market capitalization of 150 billion yuan of stock, If space information, Luan ring energy, construction of shares, the Town voted Holdings, Zoomlion, Shanghai airport, Huafa, shares the same side, TISCO stainless steel, Luzhou, have once had good market performance . so that the flow of the market value of the scale is not large Changsheng Celebration B, combined with the unique subject matter, there may be more welcome and sought after investors, including some powerful institutions.
present, Redford ahead of the circulation market size of 17 billion yuan, but to restrict the operation of many large funds space, we hardly invest in the fund more money and, therefore, difficult to obtain more revenue, thus reducing their investment interest, thus simply do not ignore it.
four, strategy papers . But if we all thought of this strategy, wants to get short-term quick gains, then listed at the beginning of the fund may be very heavy selling pressure in the surging under the impact of short-term arbitrage, the fund the opening, the opening price after the deal is likely to be the listing does not meet earnings expectations in front, which is listed after the fund may face short-term the risks. The risk arises, we can use our second defensive trading strategy that l r tactic to deal with. whether it is Class A shares, or Class B shares after the transaction price if the market reach of our earnings expectations, First, we can continue to hold to deal with, which amounts to less than the expected benefits, not to sell. too low, just a better buying opportunity. needs, choose a different share of the conversion and the holders of, preferred investors will favor low-risk class A shares, preferred investors will favor high-risk Class B share. different types of investors in place, market conditions for the commencement of the next two lined up.
(b) Redford ahead of the discount was another reason
the Celebration and the National Investment UBS Changsheng Redford ahead more alike, many investors consider the market price when Changsheng Celebration will naturally aggressive transactions with Redford to do comparison. Redford progress since the discount or premium listing situation such as Figure IV.
Redford progress in September 21, 2007 listing, Gaokaidizou day trading price situation from a premium into a discount, after 36 consecutive trading days, the fund has been in a state discount, the highest was 12.13% when the discount rate. 11, 2007 May 20, the transaction status of the Fund into the premium and the premium has been trading since 2008, during the period 27 October to 7 November, the fund has a premium rate for 10 consecutive trading days, double, October 28 when the premium rate of 108.06 percent. Recently, in order to meet the listing Changsheng Celebration, the premium rate of return the fund to more than 20%.
see Figure IV, Redford aggressive discount, mainly in the bull Quotes end; its premium climax at the end of the bear market. in the performance between these two extremes, the reason behind the fund investors are very inadequate understanding. Currently, the market ahead Changsheng Celebration compared with Redford in three ways: (1) Redford progressive opening contrast to the situation when the transaction; (2) Redford ahead when comparing the highest premium; (3) and Redford ahead of the market situation in the most recent comparison.
compared with the first approach is to be a pessimistic conclusion. In fact, this comparison method is not necessarily correct, because the background of history and reality are often different. on the second comparison method, is the author occasionally on one occasion heard, there have been aggressive in Redford premium transactions doubled to draw a pie, Huyou investors, is simply unacceptable. As for the third method, it is now using this method. the current market transactions can best reflect the current investor awareness for this type of fund. as a reference, Changsheng Celebration listed on the same day slump, to discount the possibility should be minimal.
Figure Four: Redford ahead Listing the performance of the situation since the discount or premium list
Source: Wind Information
data interval :2007.9.21 ---- 2009 .5.13
Mapping: Wang Qun Air
(c) than the Swiss B Changsheng Celebration Fu said here ahead Changsheng good
Celebration B Bi Ruifu ahead is good, does not mean that the performance of these two funds, but rather due to historical reasons, the reasons for the market, resulting in the two funds Now the According to Redford aggressive fund contracts, the fund has accumulated to make up the difference between a benchmark yield mechanism, the specific content is: first year with the actual distribution of income in the benchmark yield on the difference between the benchmark in the fund remaining to make up for the duration of the priority. If there is more than one fiscal year benchmark yield difference, from the earliest to make up the difference between the beginning of the year benchmark yield . Also over the previous event of default, the value will increase aggressive Redford.
Changsheng Celebration of the The net can > In summary, due to good progress Changsheng Celebration B Birui Fu, Changsheng Celebration B should have a higher premium on performance of Bi Ruifu ahead.
Figure Five: Changsheng Fund Celebration overall net and grade changes in fund net figure 
Source: Changsheng Fund Company
Mapping: Changsheng Fund Company
Special note: This article is a multi-wisdom. Before writing this article, I received a lot of large customers research; the author as external teachers Peking University HSBC School, some students will be listed as the main course of practice. In this, a straight thanks to all concerned.